Top 25 Players Heading Into the 2017-18 Season

So here it is, the most controversial thing you can do in writing; Rankings. And we’re going to rank the top 25 players heading into the 2017-18 NBA season. There are a lot of great players in the NBA, and it gets harder and harder to select the top 25 players. This list is, of course, subjective and is up for debate, but here are some reasonings of how I came to this conclusion:

·      Attitude and how he affects his team, team success, and individual awards. Not everything can be explained by stats.

·      Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) “a metric that estimates a player’s overall contribution to the team compared to what a theoretical replacement player would provide.”

·      Offensive and Defensive Rating “Individual offensive and defensive rating is the number of points produced by a player per hundred total individual possessions.”

·      Real Plus Minus (RPM) “RPM estimates how many points each player adds or subtracts, on average, to his team's net scoring margin for each 100 possessions played”

·      Win Shares/Win Shares Per 48 minutes/Offensive and Defensive Win Shares “A metric that estimates the number of wins a player produces for his team.”

·      Box Plus Minus (BPM) “a metric for evaluating basketball players' quality and contribution to the team.”

·      Player Efficiency Rating (PER) “boils down all of a player's contributions into one number. Using a detailed formula,"

Notable Snubs:

Nikola Jokic, Center, Denver Nuggets

The Jokic hype train is full steam ahead. But I’m here to tap the breaks a little. Jokic is fantastic and does a lot of things well. He is a phenomenal passer and can shoot the three well. But he’s very new with his emergence, and I don’t believe it’s fair for the other players who played well for the duration of the season. Don’t be surprized if he is awesome this upcoming season.

Klay Thompson, Guard, Golden State Warriors

We have a problem with underrating players on the Golden State Warriors, but Klay Thompson in my opinion, we overrate. He isn’t as good of a defender as people make him out to be and he rated 79th in box plus minus while playing with Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green. He also struggles with ball handling and disappearing during stretches during games.

Blake Griffin, Forward, Los Angeles Clippers

A player who is always injured and doesn’t really help or hurt his team and that shows with rating 33rd in Win Shares. Griffin is very bland, he also rounds out well in advanced stats he is a great player but isn’t quite good enough to be on the list of the top 25 players in the NBA.

Marc Gasol, Center, Memphis Grizzlies

An older player who is regressing, even though he had a great season, but couldn’t quite make the list because of projections and his lack of great advanced stats. Gasol is an excellent defender and passer along with the ability to shoot and knock down threes, but I feel like there are better players in the mix.

Top 25 Players Heading into the 2017-18 Season:

25. Mike Conley, Guard, Memphis Grizzlies

A complete guard who can score if he wants, and a good passer while being a solid defender with being good on the ball and off ball defending. At 17th in VORP and 16th in RPM, he proves his value to the Grizzlies. He is always positive when he’s on the floor. His team success should be greatly valued. If the Grizzlies make the playoffs again, don’t be shocked.

24. Kemba Walker, Guard, Charlotte Hornets

Walker is a versatile scorer who has been able to carry the Hornet’s offense for a long time. With having shady offensive players around him, Walker is able to find success. He led his team to the playoffs in 2015. He’s average in VORP ranking in 25th, and 23rd in Win Shares. The Hornets will be back in the playoffs this season with the addition of Dwight Howard and others.

23. Kyrie Irving, Guard, Cleveland Cavaliers

23rd in Win Shares and 21st in PER, Kyrie helped the Cavaliers to the NBA finals. Let’s get this straight, Kyrie has a unique offensive skill set, he can hit a three, a great ball handler, and has some flashy finishes. But Kyrie ranks average at the rim compaired to his lauded "best finisher in the game" stamp. in the NBA along with being a god awful defender. A talented player, but not quite the cream of the crop.

22. DeAndre Jordan, Center, Los Angeles Clippers

A rim stopper and supreme dunker, DeAndre Jordan does a lot for the Clippers. An All-Star in the Western conference, Jordan’s value has the notice of NBA coaches. 14th in RPM wins, and 12th in Win Shares, he ranks well in advanced stats and is always a consistent player during the season having the Clippers to the playoffs for multiple seasons in a row.

21. Demarcus Cousins, Center, Sacramento Kings/New Orleans Pelicans

I know I know how dare I rate Cousins so low? “He is the most talented big man in the league!” But in the seven seasons in the NBA, Cousins hasn’t made the playoffs or a winning season. Granted, not all of it is his fault, he still should hold some responsibility because of his attitude and effort on the floor. He’s usually out of shape as well. Some positives though are: He’s 7th in all Win Shares, PER, and Win Shares per 48.

20.  Paul Millsap, Forward, Denver Nuggets

A player that can do anything, a player that’s carried his team to the playoffs for multiple years and a multiple time All-Star. Millsap is a fantastic defensive player that can switch out on perimeter players while also doing a fair job protecting the rim at 6’7. A stretch four brings tremendous value to a team. At 14th in Real Plus minus, Millsap is still a great player.

19. Isaiah Thomas, Guard, Boston Celtics

Thomas had an explosive offensive season last year, nearly averaging 30 points per game, but was also massively efficient on the offensive end. Thomas was 7th in PER, and 9th in Win Shares. But, the short fall for IT is his defensive game. He was ranked 467th out of 468th eligible players in Defensive Real Plus Minus.

18. Gordon Hayward, Forward, Boston Celtics

Wings who are versatile and can playmake are extremely valuable in the NBA and Gordon Hayward is that. 22 points, 4 assists, and 6 boards, with solid defense, Hayward led his former team the Jazz to the 5th seed in the West with massive injury problems Utah had. He never takes possessions away from his teammates and doesn’t force the ball into his hands. No advanced stat pops out with Hayward, but all of them are in the high teen's early twenties.

17. Kyle Lowry, Guard, Toronto Raptors

11th in BPM, 10th in RPM, and 14th in VORP. All of these numbers prove how good Kyle Lowry is. Lowry also had an explosive offensive season like Thomas, but at least Lowry is a decent defender. The Raptors for the first half of the season had the highest offensive rating better than the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors, and when he went down, the Raptors faltered.

16. Damian Lillard, Guard, Portland Trail Blazers

Other than Mike Conley, Damian Lillard is an All-Time All-Star snub. He has been good enough to deserve a roster spot but hasn’t been able to get it because either his team wasn’t good enough, or he was just put behind players who were flat out worse than him. Last year he carried the measly Blazers to the playoffs while also being 15th PER and 16th in Win Shares.

15. Karl Anthony Towns, Center, Minnesota Timberwolves

One of the most talented and upcoming stars in the NBA, Towns is a force to be reckoned with. When he was a rookie, I predicted him to win an MVP sometime in his career, and I still see that happening. He was 9th in VORP and 7th in Win Shares, averaged 25+ points along with 10+ rebounds this season, but couldn’t get his team in the playoffs although having Thibodeau as a coach and other talented players around him.

14. Paul George, Forward, Oklahoma City Thunder

A player who rates very poorly among advanced stats, but was significantly disadvantaged by his surroundings. Like Coach McMillan, who isn’t a good coach, along with highly inefficient players surrounding him, like Mona Ellis, Thaddeus Young, and Al Jefferson. The Pacers barely made the playoffs probably due to him. The thing that also drops him down is his attitude just like Cousins, although he is not as bad as Boogie, he still isn’t great, calling out his teammates multiple times this year.

13. Rudy Gobert, Center, Utah Jazz

“Really? Rudy Gobert? The dude has no offensive skill sets and is a big stiff!” He was 3rd in the NBA in Offensive Rating and 3rd in Defensive rating the only player to do so in the history of the NBA, 2nd in Win Shares. And other really impressive stats. This season, Gobert found enormous success, he was named to the second team All-NBA, runner-up for DPOY, and runner-up for Most Improved Player (MIP.) Let’s see how he can carry a team next season with Gordon Hayward gone.

12. Anthony Davis, Forward/Center, New Orleans Pelicans

The former number one pick has made quite a name for himself, as talented as he is, he still has some setbacks, one would be the lack of team success and injury history. But he still is wildly successful. He is 3rd in PER, 7th in Defensive rating, 5th in defensive win shares, and 4th in block percentage. Davis also averaged in plain stats with 28 points per game, 12 rebounds per game while averaging 2 blocks and steals.

11. John Wall, Guard, Washington Wizards

Leading his team to the fourth seed in the east, John Wall was spectacular this season with being 8th in steal percentage, 3rd in assist percentage, 1st in total steals, and 2nd in steals per game and assists per game, while also being 19th in VORP. Wall is progressing every year, and this season was by far his best.

10. Draymond Green, Forward, Golden State Warriors

Defensive player of the Year, an NBA Champion, 1st team All-Defense, All-NBA 3rd team, as well as 2nd in Defensive Rating and 2nd in Defensive Win Shares, Green is an absolute stud. He is the engine that keeps the Warriors running with his tremendous +/- numbers along with his phenomenal playmaking ability make him a vital cog in the Warriors system.

9. Jimmy Butler, Guard, Minnesota Timberwolves

The only reason we don’t talk about Jimmy Butler is because of him being hidden behind the awful Bulls origination that had Rajon Rondo and Dwayne Wade playing alongside him with Nikola Mitotic and Fred Hoiberg as the coach. But Butler dragged the Bulls to 41 wins and a playoff appearance. He was 3rd in RPM Wins, 3rd in Win Shares, and 5th in VORP. He is going to bring a whole other dimension to the Timberwolves.

8. Chris Paul, Guard, Houston Rockets

At 32 years old, Chris Paul is still going very strong. He has consistently pushed the Clippers through the regular season and into the playoffs, in my belief, the reason he hasn’t had much success in the postseason is that of the wear and tear that his pressure he exudes in the regular season and the pressures of carrying Blake Griffin’s injuries. He was 3rd in BPM, 2nd in RPM and 3rd in Win Shares Per 48 Minutes.

7. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Position-less, Milwaukee Bucks

A starter for the All-Star game, 2nd team All-NBA, Most Improved Player of the Year, and leading the injured Milwaukee Bucks team to the 6th seed and a brutal fight with the Raptors, Giannis has made quite a name for himself. Skilled in every way, he can be a rim stopper if need be, he can be your point guard, or he can play perimeter defense, a true modern day basketball player that is also really good. He’ll, of course, need to work on his shooting, but that’s a cliché at this point.

6.  Kawhi Leonard, Forward, San Antonio Spurs

Some accomplishments in Kawhi’s past: An NBA Finals MVP in 2014, and won the previous two Defensive Player of the Year honors. Leonard accomplished this year: First Team All-NBA, First Team All-Defense, and 3rd place in the Defensive Player of the year this year, Kawhi Leonard is as great as they come. A skilled wing who can shoot threes, get the free throw line, and defend at a high level makes him the best of the best. He also ranked out with 2nd in Win Shares per 48, 4th in PER, and 5th in RPM.

5. James Harden, Guard, Houston Rockets

Leading his team to 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating, James Harden made the Rockets an offensive juggernaut of epic proportions. His team put up a historic 115 offensive rating while shooting the most threes and inside the paint shots. He was 2nd in Box Plus Minus, 2nd in VORP, and 1st in Win Shares. All-NBA first team, All-Star, and runner up MVP add to his resume.

4. Russell Westbrook, Guard, Oklahoma City Thunder

If you were just to say “A player averaged a triple double.”   You would just think that’s all that needed to be said, but like an Infomercial; “But wait, there’s more!” Westbrook was 1st in PER, 1st in Box Plus Minus, and 1st in VORP. A historical season for Westbrook, but his team’s shortcomings are part of his and his team who wasn’t very good. The only thing holding him down is being one of the worst defending guards in the NBA (Least amount of shot contests for a guard.) But for now, let’s just proclaim him the MVP.

3. Stephen Curry, Guard, Golden State Warriors

Oh no, I’m not letting you hit me with the Westbrook is better than Curry train. Steph Curry has (other than this current year) won the last two MVP’s, out of the previous three years won two NBA titles, has had the greatest three point shooting seasons co-sided with the best offensive years we’ve ever seen and this year he wasn’t any less specular. 3rd in Real Plus minus, 2nd in RPM Wins, 4th in Offensive Box Plus Minus, 10th in Effective Field Goal Percentage, and to add on, he led the Warriors to another championship, during the Finals, he averaged 26 points, 8 assists, 8 rebounds, and 2 steals.

2. Kevin Durant, Forward, Golden State Warriors

After that performance in the NBA Finals is there any question he’s the second best player in the world? Before his injury during the regular season, Kevin Durant was the favorite to win MVP, after, Westbrook and Harden took the mantle. He was 2nd in PER and 1st in Win Shares per 48 Minutes, along with that, he was Finals MVP and averaged 35 points, 8 rebounds 5.5 assists, with a block and steal per game. Durant also had a historic 139 offensive rating with a 68% True Shooting Percentage! Let it be known the former MVP still has it all offensively and defensively.

1. LeBron James, Forward, Cleveland Cavaliers

Guess who’s back, back again? It’s LBJ as the best player in the NBA, and I don’t think it’s ending anytime soon. He carried his team to another championship game out of the very weak Eastern Conference, but it doesn’t matter. LeBron had another top notch season at the age of 33 years old being 1st in RPM, 1st in RPM Wins, and 3rd in VORP. In the Finals, James averaged a triple double, along with an Offensive Rating of 126, and a True Shooting Percentage of 63%. There isn’t much to say about LeBron’s greatness other than people debate him being the greatest player ever, or commonly known as the GOAT.

Recap:

-21 players made the playoffs this last season, the four expectations are Anthony Davis, Demarcus Cousins, Kemba Walker, and Karl Anthony-Towns.

-Five players reached the NBA Finals from this list, and four are in the top 10. Kyrie Irving, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry,

-15 players played in the Western Conference and 10 Played in the Eastern Conference. 15 out of the 25 players played in the West, proving the powers of the Western Conference. And this year, only 7 players in my top 25 players in the Eastern Conference: Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, Kyrie Irving (for now), Isaiah Thomas, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Kyle Lowry.

-Out of the top 10, only two were Eastern Conference, and the rest of the 8 were from the West.

-18 out of the 26 players made the All-Star game last season.

-14 out of the 15 players on my list made the All-NBA team. (DeMar DeRozan)


A huge contribution to this list was Andy Bailey's "Players with 1,500 Minutes, 2016-17, Ranked" This gave me the knowledge of who is ranked and who is not and where players lied throughout the season. He does great work and his twitter is @AndrewDBailey.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z2iK9PcZnWYBi_NWoSYqhDb_-cUcT6LHDuCIquxVqik/edit#gid=0


All Stats are provided by Basketball Reference, Real GM, NBA.com, ESPN.com

Best under the radar moves this NBA off-season

Yes, we know that Paul George got traded for pennies on the dollar, we are aware that Danny Ainge's patience paid off with the signing of Gordon Hayward, and we know that the Rockets got an All-NBA point guard in Chris Paul. But here are some smaller moves that I liked during the NBA offseason. Now, this can include the free agency period, the draft, and any other trades that happen during this offseason.

J.J Redick, One year/23 million dollars, Philadelphia 76ers



Now when you see 23 million dollars tied with J.J Redick, you may be thinking "seriously?' But here is the explanation: J.J Redick is a floor spacer, it will help the 76ers tremendously with Ben Simmons on the floor, a player we have no idea if he can shoot. IF Joel Embiid and Simmons can stay healthy, along with Saric, Covington, and Fultz, Redick will help them make the playoffs with his veteran leadership and shooting. This also helps the 76ers get over the salary cap floor, and by having it be a one year contract, they have space to use for the 2018 offseason.


Patrick Patterson, Three years/ 16.3 million dollars, Oklahoma City Thunder



Although last season wasn't one of Patterson's best, he still was a positive performer and an analytical darling. At 5 million per year, it's a steal for the Thunder. They used their Mid level player exception (MLE) for Patterson, who is above a mid level player, to bolster their frontcourt depth. So instead of having to play Kanter the whole time during the bench roll out, you can have Patterson play some of the bench frontcourt minutes. He can also play with Westbrook and George in the starting lineup helping the spacing for Westbrook to drive (career 37% three point shooter.)


Kyle Kuzma 27th pick, Los Angeles Lakers



The Lakers got the 27th pick from the Brooklyn Nets from the D'Angelo Russell trade on June 20th of this year, and they made it big with that opportunity by drafting Kyle Kuzma out of Utah. The 6'9 power forward has shown some serious skill, he was very aggressive and shot the ball at will. Kuzma showed to be a good three point shooter (48% during his summer league campaign), and he showed he could rebound (6.7 per summer league game) and pass the ball well with 2.7 assists per summer league game.


Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, One year/2.1 million dollars, Houston Rockets



At the veteran's minimum, Mbah a Moute is a superb signing for the Rockets and one player I would've loved to see my team (the Jazz) go after. He gave great wing players like Gordon Hayward, and Paul George fits with his defensive prowess, while also shooting a career high 39% from the three point line. The biggest asset to the Rockets though is Mbah a Moute's ability to defend four positions and play the three and four. If he plays the four, it gives the Rockets an even better floor spacing option.

Utah Jazz trade 2018 lottery protected pick (via OKC) for Ricky Rubio

Ricky Rubio has some serious flaws in his game, one being his inability to finish at the rim and his three point shooting. Rubio shot an abysmal 33% from shots less than 5 feet and shot a paltry 30% from three last season. But there are positive things about this trade for the Jazz and Rubio. Rubio is one of only three players who has averaged more than 9 assists and 2 steals per game: John Stockton and Chris Paul. Rubio's passing is one of the best in the league, and most people need to recognize this ability like they realize it with LeBron and Lonzo Ball. He doesn't need to pound the ball to get his assists either, which is hugely beneficial. Rubio is also a terrific defender standing at 6'4 and having a 3.5 steal percentage. 

C.J Miles, Three years/23 million dollars, Toronto Raptors

The Raptors could've easily started from scratch and not brought any of its returning players back, but they did. They signed C.J Miles, a sharpshooter from the Pacers on a team friendly deal to replace the often injured Demarre Carroll. The best thing Miles brings to his new team is the three point shooting. After shooting 41 percent last season, he can help space the floor with a non-shooting guard DeMar DeRozan. He'll be available for more games than Carroll, he'll provide more points than Carroll, and he'll just be flat out better than Carroll. Look to the Raptors to be improved this next season because of the help of Miles.

P.J Tucker, Four years/32 million, Houston Rockets

After losing their attitude man in Patrick Beverly, they added one in P.J Tucker. Tucker is another well-suited addition for the Rockets. Tucker can shoot the three ball well and defend at a high rate, Tucker, like Mbah a Moute also has position versatility easily able to slide into the three and four position and defend nearly every position on the court. Tucker helps the Rockets defense who ranked 15th in defensive efficiency. The most valuable item that Tucker brings to his game is his corner three point shooting. He shot 73% of his threes in the corner and shot it at a 45% clip! But it does mean he isn't a very good above the break three point shooter. 

Aron Baynes, One year/ 4.1 million dollars, Boston Celtics

After the addition of Hayward and Morris, the Celtics were looking for a beefy backup center who could grab tough rebounds and be a bully down low. They found it in Aron Baynes. Baynes is a tough Australian who likes to push people around. Boston was in 29th place in total rebound percentage now Baynes may not be getting 10 rebounds per game, but if they get in those cold rebound streaks with Horford, they could throw Baynes in there and stop the bleeding. 

Quick Recap: Game Two

Steph Curry finished with a 32 point, 11 assists, 10 rebound triple-double. And LeBron James also had had a triple-double and finished with 29 points, 14 assists, and 11 rebounds. But it was the Warriors who moved on to have a 2-0 lead in the series beating the Cavaliers 132-113. Here are some thoughts I had about the game:

Steph and KD are unstoppable

The biggest problem that the Cavaliers have is that they don't have enough talent to matchup against Steph Curry and Kevin Durant's greatness. The duo had a combined 65 points, 23 rebounds, 17 assists, 4 steals, and 5 blocks. This may be the greatest offensive duo in the history of the NBA, and It's being defended by J.R Smith and at times, Richard Jefferson. I just don't see the Cavaliers being able to defend the Warriors at all. And to add on to it, Klay dropped in 22 points.

Cleveland's Role Players

Lebron had his best game of the series, having a triple double, in the 9 minutes LeBron was off of the floor, the Cavaliers were a -8. He was not the problem in the Cavaliers loss this afternoon, but his teammates were for some of it. The trio of Channing Frye, Deron Williams, and J.R Smith who played a combined 38 minutes had a combined 2 points on 2-13 shooting. Combined for a -26 while on the floor. These guys have to step up for Clevland to even have a chance.

Golden State Turnovers

The Warriors had 20 turnovers and 8 by Steph Curry. It became a problem in the first half when they had 14 and Curry had 6. But they quickly made up for their mistakes and cleaned up the offense and stopped being passive with the ball. The only reason we saw the Cavaliers within three at the half was because of the Golden State turnovers.

Warriors' Quick Rotations

During the second half, you could see the Warriors flying around the court. They were able to help in the right positions and know where they were supposed to go to next. If Curry got switched out on Kevin Love in the low post, Draymond Green would slide over and help on the back side, if they threw a lob over the top to Channing Frye, Klay Thompson would side over and close out on the shot, etc. Everything the Cavaliers did, the Warriors were on top of it. For the Cavaliers scoring 62 points in the first half, the Cavaliers only had a 51 point half after that.

Kyrie's Weak Performance

I don't ever mean to bash on just one person, but Kyrie Irving was just flat out awful. He shot 6-23 from the floor, had 3 turnovers and was an atrocious -18 while on the floor. He made all of the wrong decisions, if he should shoot it, he would pass it, if he should pass it, he would shoot it. All of this is without mentioning his defense. The biggest problem with Kyrie is he dies on every single screen. It doesn't matter if it's an off-ball screen or on-ball screen. He collapses.

Summary

This game was worse case scenario for the Cavaliers. Not only did it look like they made a ton of adjustments, some of them worked, but most of them didn't. A lot of this just comes down to the significant talent difference between the Warriors and Cavaliers. There is not much to do when the talent discrepancy is just this vast. Kyrie has to play better on both ends. He has to realize he can't replicate his performance from a year ago, the Warriors have been preparing him for the whole year, Steph in particular. The largest factor and most important number in this game for me were the Warriors' 43 three-point attempts versus the Cavaliers's 29.

Game 3 Prediction: Warriors 112-108. Updated series Predictionn: Warriors in 4