Friday, June 2, 2017

Quick Recap: Game One





In Oakland, California we saw two players come back in their MVP form. Kevin Durant had 38 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists and finished with 55% shooting from the field and 50% from three-point range. Steph Curry had 28 points, 10 assists, and 6 rebounds along with shooting 50% from the field and 54% from three. We could just sum up this game with saying that this game is the cause of these two player’s greatness. But there is more to a basketball game than just two guys. Here are several keys to the Warriors victory:

Turnovers/Assists

The Cavaliers really struggled on multiple levels regarding keeping, taking, and giving the ball. Let's first look at the turnovers. The Cavaliers turned the ball over 20 times last night, and of their 20 turnovers, 11 were live balls (Golden State steals), giving the Warriors transition opportunities. Golden State scored 17 points off of those 11 live-ball turnovers.  All of this would be okay if the Warriors turned over the ball more or Cleveland stole the ball away from the Warriors. But the Warriors only had 4 turnovers, while Cleveland had zero steals. They weren't able to stress out the Warriors, and the Warriors sure stressed out the Cavaliers. If we have a takeaway from this game is the Warriors were never uncomfortable. 

Paint Points

Although the Warriors are the best team in the restricted area, the Cavaliers really struggled to stop the Warriors in the paint. A lot of buckets came from covering the shooters on the outside instead of helping to cover the driver through the paint. Another problem that is huge is not covering Zaza Pachulia rolling to the paint, not being able to cover the back cuts, and simple one on one drives to the basket. They were too worried about the three point shot, and with that, it creates a lot of easy baskets. They the Cavaliers got outscored 56-30 in the paint. Not a good sign for the Cavs. 

Fast Break Points/Transition Defense

27-9 was the margin of fast break points. The Warriors got out in transition like they want to and pushed the ball. The Cavaliers did a poor job on running back in transition whether it would be off of a miss or a live ball turnover. We also saw during the fast break them glue on to shooters rather than the person driving to the basket or rim running. Now part of this problem is just simply the Warriors are too good in transition, and the reason they're so good in transition is that they have those shooters. When Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are running to each corner while Kevin Durant stops on the at above the break while Draymond Green is driving to the basket and Zaza is running to the rim, it's massively hard to defend.  But at some point you're going to have to pick your poison, are you going to allow an easy dunk, or leave a shooter open and hope someone can recover quick enough? 

Role Players Not Playing Well

Cavaliers not named LeBron were 8-of-28 (28.6%) on uncontested field goals. This is abysmal. Three former Jazzmen really stunk up the bed last night. Deron Williams had zero points, 0-4 from the field, two turnovers, three personal fouls, and was a -8 last night. Kyle Korver was 0-3 from the field and three-point line, and a -8 last night. Richard Jefferson was 0-2 from the three-point line, had 5 personal fouls, and two turnovers. All three were very poor coming off the bench. Also, Tristan Thompson must've been focusing on Khloe Kardashian because he was horrible as well. If Zaza Pachulia is your matchup, you should be owning it. 

It's only one game, these teams have blown each other out in most of the games in the finals. But it still is not a great sign if you're a Cavs fan or just simply a Cavs supporter. The Warriors looked like they should've been up by 20 at the half and were only up by 8. If we see the role players for the Cavaliers step up more than they did game one, we may see a closer game. I just don't see this Cavalier team being successful against the Warriors and the reason can be summed up with one name: Kevin Durant. 

Prediction for game two: 103-97 Warriors. Updated series prediction: Warriors in 5. 



Tuesday, May 23, 2017

NBA Season Awards

We're in the middle of the 2017 playoffs, and the NBA just announced the finalists for the 2016-17 regular season awards. Since we are on our collision course to the Golden State Warriors and Clevland Cavilers NBA Finals, we'll look back at the 2016-17 NBA season. This year's regular season was fantastic, and there was a lot of historical moments and memories. Let's look at the players, coaches, and executives who deserve awards for their successful season. Please note, these are my personal selections and not predictions for June 26th.

Coach of the Year: Eric Spoelstra, Miami Heat
Second place: Mike Dantoni
Third place: Greg Popovich


Spoelstra's job should not be overlooked. He had nearly eight D-Leauge players on his team, Luke Babbit was a starter, and they were surging to the playoffs. Although I'm a numbers guy, there isn't much to back up the pick for Spoelstra. Here are a few, though. First, the Heat had a 28% chance of making the playoffs before the season. They started 11-30 and their odds to make the playoffs were a mere 2%. This is just remarkable and give a lot of the credit to Head Coach Eric Spoelstra.

Preseason:







January 5th:




Most Improved Player of the Year: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Second place: Nikola Jokic
Third place: Rudy Gobert


The Greek Freak last year was amazing. But was he starting in an All-Star game, near lock at All-NBA, and improved in EVERY SINGLE STATISTICAL CATAGORY amazing? No. This should be an easy pick for everybody.




Sixth Man of the Year: Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
Second place: Eric Gordon
Third place: Lou Williams


I think the major component of me picking Iguodala is because I'm tired of people choosing high volume scorers that don't do much other than shoot 12 shots off the bench to get their 20 points per game. Iguodala averaged 2.5 Value Over Replacement Player, a 3.0 Box Plus Minus, and is responsible for 6.9 Win Shares. Compared to Eric Gordon who averaged a 0.4 Value Over Replacement Player, and an abysmal -2.4 Box Plus Minus, and is responsible for 3.8 Win Shares. Iguodala provides more value to his team coming off of the bench providing playmaking, scoring, and defense. He also played for the team with the best record.

Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
Second place: Rudy Gobert
Third place: Kahwi Lenord


Look, I want Rudy Gobert to win the Defensive Player of the Year, but I can't pick him and be honest with you. Green's team was second in defensive rating only behind San Antonio. Green has an astonishing 5.0 Defensive Box Plus Minus, a 30 steal percentage and a 34 block percentage. His team is also a 99.4 defensive rating while he is on the court.

Rookie of the Year: Malcolm Brogden, Milwaukee Bucks
Second place: Dario Saric
Third place: Joel Embiid


The best ability is availability. We can look at the stats that show how good Joel Embiid was this season, there are two issues with the Embiid argument with advanced numbers or general stats is there is a too small of a sample size. Brogden steadied the ship of the Bucks and helped them into the playoffs, and you can't ask for more from a rookie.

Most Valuable Player: Kahwi Lenord, San Antonio Spurts
Second place: Russell Westbrook
Third place: James Harden


Kahwi has proven himself as a valuable player for the Spurs and one of the best players in the NBA. We obviously know that LeBron is the best player in the league, but for argument sake and the three finalists for this position, I find Kahwi to be most suited for the MVP. Kahwi's team finished with the second-best record in the NBA. With averaging 25.5 points per game, he was also responsible for being a part of the best defensive team in the NBA averaging a 100 defensive rating. He had an Effective iFeld Goal Percentage of 54.1%, was responsible for 13.6 Win Shares, and 7.5 Box Plus Minus all while having a high 31.1% Usage Rate. Being a great defender should be taken into account when we talk about the Most Valuable Player and is far better than his peers Russell Westbrook and James Harden.

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Way-Too-Early 2016-17 NBA Season Predictions

While most people are gearing up for football, I’m still writing about the NBA. The month of August is the dead season in the NBA calendar year, players are playing in the Olympics, tanning on the beach, or back into their own team’s practice facility. Any General Managers and scouts are still working to finalize their respective teams and decide the invites for training camp. But, at the end of the year, for us basketball fans, we get the satisfaction of getting our predictions right. It’s pretty easy for me, though, because I’m always right. In here, I’ll give out playoff predictions and season awards. So here’s my predictions that are inevitably going to be wrong:


Eastern Conference


15: Philadelphia 76ers 18-64
14. Brooklyn Nets 20-62
13. Orlando Magic 32-50
12. Milwaukee Bucks 37-45
11. Miami Heat 38-44
10. Chicago Bulls 40-42
9. New York Knicks 41-41
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8. Washington Wizards 43-39


Bradley Beal’s contract is big, but the margin that the Wizards will get in the playoffs is not. Washington will get back on track with John Wall the great player that he is, and with some help with better health, they will move in the right direction. Also, my hope for the Wizards is that they change their style of play that they played with last year. They’re trying to play like the Warriors, but only the Warriors can play like the Warriors.


7. Indiana Pacers 45-37


The hype for the Pacers is out of control. Indiana has a great player, don’t get me wrong, Paul George will be able to hold down the fort for Indiana, but the rest of the team that is being built around him isn’t too special. The Pacers made a downgrade move in Jeff Teague for George Hill, considering that in Real Plus-Minus, Hill was a 1.5 and Teague was a 0.3 last season. To add on, the Pacers want to play faster, but adding Al Jefferson with no shooters, is an ill-advised decision.


6. Charlotte Hornets 46-36


Addition by subtraction AND addition by addition puts the Hornets just slightly above the Pacers. Getting Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back into the fray will help the Hornets stay in the playoffs and ahead of the other two teams. Also, without feeling the need to feed Al Jefferson the ball, it will ultimately help Charlotte.


5. Atlanta Hawks 48-34


Yes, yes, I know, the Hawks lost Al Horford, Jeff Teague, and Kyle Korver is aging. But Atlanta had a problem, Al Horford, and Paul Millsap were almost the same player. And Dwight Howard can fix that,.To add-on, I’m not too sure Dennis Schroder is not better than Jeff Teague. The problem with the Hawks is that they have absolutely no depth, but they do have Coach Bud.


4. Detroit Pistons 49-33


Even though Detroit is rolling into the season with nearly the same squad, they will be vastly improved. With young players improving and adding a backup center in BOBAN THE DESTROYER it'll deepen their bench and improve the team bottom up. But seriously, along with that, Ish Smith will add a significant boost off the bench. Reggie Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Morris, and Harris will all be huge in the Pistons moving up four spots to number four.


3. Boston Celtics 54-28


Al Horford is huge for the Celtics, he brings the center that they needed. Now, with the progression of this young core, Brad Stevens will be able to work his magic. Especially with Al Horford, Brad Stevens will finally have a high-low Center who can help Isiah Thomas when he gets double teamed. He can pass out of the double-team to Al Horford who can either shoot the three ball, drive to the basket, or pass the ball. Phenomenal pickup by the C's.


2. Toronto Raptors 55-27


With the return of Jonas Valanciunas, it seems fitting to place the Raptors at second. With the losses of Bismack Biyombo and James Johnson, it’ll put a little dent into the Raptors season. Andy Bailey from Today’s Fastbreak showed the Raptors staying even in Wins Over Replacement, therefore why I only had them losing one more game. But with the likes of Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan, they’ll be able to maintain the second spot.


1. Cleveland Cavaliers 60-22


Mike Dunleavy was the Cavs biggest addition to their squad. Which, in fact, is a fabulous get. He was a staple in the Bulls organization. A player who can hit shots and pass the ball well will reap a huge benefit in the Cavs style of play. Chris Anderson is another veteran pickup that forced Cleveland to release Harris’s contract. Let’s not forget, they won the Championship and have Lebron James, a top three player ever.


Western Conference


15. Sacramento Kings 23-59
14. Phoenix Suns 25-57
13. Los Angeles Lakers 26-56
12. Denver Nuggets 34-48
11. New Orleans Pelicans 36-46
10. Oklahoma City Thunder 39-41
9. Memphis Grizzlies 40-42
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8. Minnesota Timberwolves 41-41


People who are just casual basketball fans don’t understand how good Karl Anthony-Towns is. For a bold prediction; He is a future Hall of Famer and future MVP candidate in a couple of years. Along with Towns, the Wolves added Coach Tom Thibodeau. For all I can see, Minnesota added a sure fire top five coach in the league.With the development of Zach Lavine and the addition of Kris Dunn, the Wolves get into the playoffs.


7. Dallas Mavericks 43-39


Rick Carlisle, don’t let me down. I have great faith in his coaching abilities, and one thing rings true; players always play great under Carlisle. And I'm hoping the same will be true for Harrison Barnes and will be able to push them into the playoffs.


6. Houston Rockets 44-38


The Rockets are going to score a lot of points. A lot. They actually could be historically great on the offensive end. With James Harden already a prolific scorer and passer, Houston added Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson. Gordon and Anderson add a combined 3.1 offensive plus-minus.


5. Utah Jazz 47-35


Great veteran additions were the story of the Jazz’s offseason. With a “Three and D” point guard in George Hill, and a scoring wing in Joe Johnson it will boost the Jazz to the fifth seed in the West. Also, in Andy Bailey’s Wins Over Replacement the Jazz were third most improved team on this chart. Gaining six wins.


4. Portland Trail Blazers 48-34


Damian Lillard is a superstar, and this is the reason I have the Blazers ahead of the Jazz. C.J Mccollum just signed a four year 106 million dollar contract which creates a security blanket for the Blazers. Adding Evan Turner to the mix can be a big boost on the bench or starting due to his great defense. They also retained Allen Crabbe and Festus Ezeli who will bolster Portland’s bench from the bottom up.


3. Los Angeles Clippers 54-28


Do we forget how good the Clippers are? With Blake Griffin coming back healthy with the likes of Chris Paul and Deandre Jordan, the Clippers are still a force to be reckoned with. Both Chris, Paul and Blake Griffin, are in contract years, so maybe they’ll step up their game even more. The Clippers Achilles heel will be their small forward position and bench. We’ll see how their depth holds up.


2. San Antonio Spurs 57-35


A foundational player leaving an organization is a huge loss. I don’t think the loss of Tim Duncan will affect the Spurs now, but it will in the future. The addition of Pau Gasol will help bandage the wound. Even though Duncan declined in his played last year, his defense was still so valuable. San Antonio's defensive rating was a team-best 93.8 when Duncan was on the floor this year. That dropped to 98.4 when he sat.


1. Golden State Warriors 70-12


C’mon, I mean, what do you expect? Kevin Durant was one of the best offensive players in the league. He was number two in win shares and in the top five in offensive plus-minus. The number one player in both metrics? Stephen Curry. The Warriors are statically unstoppable. I do believe they will struggle in the beginning, but it won’t last long.


Season Predictions and awards


Most Unbearable Team to Watch: Brooklyn Nets


What In The Hell Are They Doing Award: Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings


The Least Valuable Player Award: Michael Carter-Williams, Milwaukee Bucks


First Coach Fired: Fred Hoiberg, Chicago Bulls

The "I'm going to chuck more shots up in a game than when the name "Chuck" is mentioned on NBA on TNT" Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

Most Valuable Player: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors


Most Improved Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks


Sixth Man of the Year Award: Ish Smith, Detroit Pistons

Rookie of the year: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers


Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors


Coach of the Year: Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics


Executive of the Year: Dennis Lindsey, Utah Jazz


NBA Champions: Golden State Warriors

Finals MVP: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors

All NBA First Team
G Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
G James Harden, Houston Rockets
F Lebron James, Clevland Cavaliers
F Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
F Kawhi Lenord, San Antonio Spurs

All NBA Second Team
G Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
G Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
F Blake Griffin, Los Angles Clippers
F LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
C Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons

All NBA Third Team
G Chris Paul, Los Angles Clippers
G John Wall, Washington Wizards
F Demar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
F Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
C Al Horford, Boston Celtics

NBA All-Rookie First Team
G Kris Dunn, Minnesota Timberwolves
G Jammal Murray, Denver Nuggets
F Ben Simmons, Philidelphia 76ers
F Brandon Ingram, Los Angles Lakers
C Joel Embiid, Philidelphia 76ers

NBA All-Rookie Second Team
G Buddy Hield, New Orleans Pelicans
G Denzel Valintine, Chicago Bulls
F Jalen Brown, Boston Celtics
F Dragan Bender, Phoenix Suns
C Ivic Zubac, Los Angles Lakers

NBA All-Defensive First Team
G Chris Paul, Los Angles Clippers
G Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
F Kahwi Lenord, San Antonio Spurs
F Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
C Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz

NBA All-Defensive Second Team
G Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzles
G Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
F Paul Milsap, Atlanta Hawks
F Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
C Deandre Jordan, Los Angles Clippers

All stats are provided by basketballreference.com unless previously noted