Way-Too-Early 2016-17 NBA Season Predictions

While most people are gearing up for football, I’m still writing about the NBA. The month of August is the dead season in the NBA calendar year, players are playing in the Olympics, tanning on the beach, or back into their own team’s practice facility. Any General Managers and scouts are still working to finalize their respective teams and decide the invites for training camp. But, at the end of the year, for us basketball fans, we get the satisfaction of getting our predictions right. It’s pretty easy for me, though, because I’m always right. In here, I’ll give out playoff predictions and season awards. So here’s my predictions that are inevitably going to be wrong:

Eastern Conference

15: Philadelphia 76ers 18-64

14. Brooklyn Nets 20-62

13. Orlando Magic 32-50

12. Milwaukee Bucks 37-45

11. Miami Heat 38-44

10. Chicago Bulls 40-42

9. New York Knicks 41-41

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8. Washington Wizards 43-39

Bradley Beal’s contract is big, but the margin that the Wizards will get in the playoffs is not. Washington will get back on track with John Wall the great player that he is, and with some help with better health, they will move in the right direction. Also, my hope for the Wizards is that they change their style of play that they played with last year. They’re trying to play like the Warriors, but only the Warriors can play like the Warriors.

7. Indiana Pacers 45-37

The hype for the Pacers is out of control. Indiana has a great player, don’t get me wrong, Paul George will be able to hold down the fort for Indiana, but the rest of the team that is being built around him isn’t too special. The Pacers made a downgrade move in Jeff Teague for George Hill, considering that in Real Plus-Minus, Hill was a 1.5 and Teague was a 0.3 last season. To add on, the Pacers want to play faster, but adding Al Jefferson with no shooters, is an ill-advised decision.

6. Charlotte Hornets 46-36

Addition by subtraction AND addition by addition puts the Hornets just slightly above the Pacers. Getting Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back into the fray will help the Hornets stay in the playoffs and ahead of the other two teams. Also, without feeling the need to feed Al Jefferson the ball, it will ultimately help Charlotte.

5. Atlanta Hawks 48-34

Yes, yes, I know, the Hawks lost Al Horford, Jeff Teague, and Kyle Korver is aging. But Atlanta had a problem, Al Horford, and Paul Millsap were almost the same player. And Dwight Howard can fix that,.To add-on, I’m not too sure Dennis Schroder is not better than Jeff Teague. The problem with the Hawks is that they have absolutely no depth, but they do have Coach Bud.

4. Detroit Pistons 49-33

Even though Detroit is rolling into the season with nearly the same squad, they will be vastly improved. With young players improving and adding a backup center in BOBAN THE DESTROYER it'll deepen their bench and improve the team bottom up. But seriously, along with that, Ish Smith will add a significant boost off the bench. Reggie Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Morris, and Harris will all be huge in the Pistons moving up four spots to number four.

3. Boston Celtics 54-28

Al Horford is huge for the Celtics, he brings the center that they needed. Now, with the progression of this young core, Brad Stevens will be able to work his magic. Especially with Al Horford, Brad Stevens will finally have a high-low Center who can help Isiah Thomas when he gets double teamed. He can pass out of the double-team to Al Horford who can either shoot the three ball, drive to the basket, or pass the ball. Phenomenal pickup by the C's.

2. Toronto Raptors 55-27

With the return of Jonas Valanciunas, it seems fitting to place the Raptors at second. With the losses of Bismack Biyombo and James Johnson, it’ll put a little dent into the Raptors season. Andy Bailey from Today’s Fastbreak showed the Raptors staying even in Wins Over Replacement, therefore why I only had them losing one more game. But with the likes of Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan, they’ll be able to maintain the second spot.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers 60-22

Mike Dunleavy was the Cavs biggest addition to their squad. Which, in fact, is a fabulous get. He was a staple in the Bulls organization. A player who can hit shots and pass the ball well will reap a huge benefit in the Cavs style of play. Chris Anderson is another veteran pickup that forced Cleveland to release Harris’s contract. Let’s not forget, they won the Championship and have Lebron James, a top three player ever.

Western Conference

15. Sacramento Kings 23-59

14. Phoenix Suns 25-57

13. Los Angeles Lakers 26-56

12. Denver Nuggets 34-48

11. New Orleans Pelicans 36-46

10. Oklahoma City Thunder 39-41

9. Memphis Grizzlies 40-42

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8. Minnesota Timberwolves 41-41

People who are just casual basketball fans don’t understand how good Karl Anthony-Towns is. For a bold prediction; He is a future Hall of Famer and future MVP candidate in a couple of years. Along with Towns, the Wolves added Coach Tom Thibodeau. For all I can see, Minnesota added a sure fire top five coach in the league.With the development of Zach Lavine and the addition of Kris Dunn, the Wolves get into the playoffs.

7. Dallas Mavericks 43-39

Rick Carlisle, don’t let me down. I have great faith in his coaching abilities, and one thing rings true; players always play great under Carlisle. And I'm hoping the same will be true for Harrison Barnes and will be able to push them into the playoffs.

6. Houston Rockets 44-38

The Rockets are going to score a lot of points. A lot. They actually could be historically great on the offensive end. With James Harden already a prolific scorer and passer, Houston added Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson. Gordon and Anderson add a combined 3.1 offensive plus-minus.

5. Utah Jazz 47-35

Great veteran additions were the story of the Jazz’s offseason. With a “Three and D” point guard in George Hill, and a scoring wing in Joe Johnson it will boost the Jazz to the fifth seed in the West. Also, in Andy Bailey’s Wins Over Replacement the Jazz were third most improved team on this chart. Gaining six wins.

4. Portland Trail Blazers 48-34

Damian Lillard is a superstar, and this is the reason I have the Blazers ahead of the Jazz. C.J Mccollum just signed a four year 106 million dollar contract which creates a security blanket for the Blazers. Adding Evan Turner to the mix can be a big boost on the bench or starting due to his great defense. They also retained Allen Crabbe and Festus Ezeli who will bolster Portland’s bench from the bottom up.

3. Los Angeles Clippers 54-28

Do we forget how good the Clippers are? With Blake Griffin coming back healthy with the likes of Chris Paul and Deandre Jordan, the Clippers are still a force to be reckoned with. Both Chris, Paul and Blake Griffin, are in contract years, so maybe they’ll step up their game even more. The Clippers Achilles heel will be their small forward position and bench. We’ll see how their depth holds up.

2. San Antonio Spurs 57-35

A foundational player leaving an organization is a huge loss. I don’t think the loss of Tim Duncan will affect the Spurs now, but it will in the future. The addition of Pau Gasol will help bandage the wound. Even though Duncan declined in his played last year, his defense was still so valuable. San Antonio's defensive rating was a team-best 93.8 when Duncan was on the floor this year. That dropped to 98.4 when he sat.

1. Golden State Warriors 70-12

C’mon, I mean, what do you expect? Kevin Durant was one of the best offensive players in the league. He was number two in win shares and in the top five in offensive plus-minus. The number one player in both metrics? Stephen Curry. The Warriors are statically unstoppable. I do believe they will struggle in the beginning, but it won’t last long.

Season Predictions and awards

Most Unbearable Team to Watch: Brooklyn Nets

What In The Hell Are They Doing Award: Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings

The Least Valuable Player Award: Michael Carter-Williams, Milwaukee Bucks

First Coach Fired: Fred Hoiberg, Chicago Bulls

The "I'm going to chuck more shots up in a game than when the name "Chuck" is mentioned on NBA on TNT" Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

Most Valuable Player: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors

Most Improved Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

Sixth Man of the Year Award: Ish Smith, Detroit Pistons

Rookie of the year: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

Coach of the Year: Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics

Executive of the Year: Dennis Lindsey, Utah Jazz

NBA Champions: Golden State Warriors

Finals MVP: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors

All NBA First Team
G Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
G James Harden, Houston Rockets
F Lebron James, Clevland Cavaliers
F Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
F Kawhi Lenord, San Antonio Spurs

All NBA Second Team
G Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
G Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
F Blake Griffin, Los Angles Clippers
F LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
C Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons

All NBA Third Team
G Chris Paul, Los Angles Clippers
G John Wall, Washington Wizards
F Demar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
F Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
C Al Horford, Boston Celtics

NBA All-Rookie First Team
G Kris Dunn, Minnesota Timberwolves
G Jammal Murray, Denver Nuggets
F Ben Simmons, Philidelphia 76ers
F Brandon Ingram, Los Angles Lakers
C Joel Embiid, Philidelphia 76ers

NBA All-Rookie Second Team

G Buddy Hield, New Orleans Pelicans

G Denzel Valintine, Chicago Bulls

F Jalen Brown, Boston Celtics

F Dragan Bender, Phoenix Suns

C Ivic Zubac, Los Angles Lakers

NBA All-Defensive First Team

G Chris Paul, Los Angles Clippers

G Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

F Kahwi Lenord, San Antonio Spurs

F Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

C Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz

NBA All-Defensive Second Team

G Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzles

G Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors

F Paul Milsap, Atlanta Hawks

F Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans

C Deandre Jordan, Los Angles Clippers

All stats are provided by basketballreference.com unless previously noted

How the Utah Jazz team was assembled, and what does this mean for this year and the future

The Jazz have been the hot team this summer. Some people are buying the hype, like the Ringer’s Jonathan Tjarks who wrote his July 11th article “Without the luxury of taking consensus stars at the top of the draft, the Jazz stick to a few core principles to find undervalued talent. They select for size and speed, and they look for versatility on both sides of the ball. They also give themselves multiple shots at the apple almost every year, ransacking the Nets’ cupboard in the Deron Williams trade and renting out their cap space for picks to allow the Warriors to sign Andre Iguodala. From 2010 to 2015, the Jazz consistently acquired core players with a height range from 6-foot-6 to 7-foot-2, across all positions.” And others, like another The Ringer member and bigwig Bill Simmons on the Ringer NBA podcast. says “The Utah Jazz, are everyone’s stick up the ass team and I think it’s going to backfire on them big time. I still don’t understand that team... I mean, two minutes left in the game, who’s getting the ball? Because I've seen Gordon Hayward in those situations... I don’t see it, and I see them losing a lot of close games, also, I’m going to throw this out there, I’m not totally sold on Quin Snyder.” These are burning hot takes. And I’ll go season by season to see how the Jazz made the roster they have now, and what I see for the Jazz in the near future.

The Jazz organization has changed big time. The days of Jerry Sloan and Phil Johnson on the bench, Kevin O'Connor as the General Manager, and Larry Miller and Greg Miller as the owner, are long gone. But now a fresh, new regime is now in place. Now, Gail Miller is at the helm as the owner, Dennis Lindsey as the General Manager, and Quin Snyder as the head coach. The motto has been “not skipping steps”. For past four years, the Jazz hasn't skipped steps, at all. In fact, they’ve stepped on each step on the staircase.

It all started July 1st of 2013 when the whole franchise evolved. The Jazz let go a plethora of players starting with Al Jefferson, DeMarre Carroll, Earl Watson, Jamaal Tinsley, Mo Williams, Paul Millsap, and Randy Foye. Resigning none of these players besides Jamaal Tinsley. This was the start of a new era in Salt Lake City. They focused on tearing it all down and build on young pieces and assets they have, with the assets they’re going to have.

2013-14 Offseason

In the 2013 draft, the Jazz selected Trey Burke at #9 overall, which is Dennis Lindsey’s first and really last mistake. Then, in that draft, they took Rudy Gobert at #27. Which is one of General Manager Dennis Lindsey’s best picks. Before the 2013-14 season, the Jazz made a huge trade with the Golden State Warriors. This trade happened because the Warriors needed to clear up cap space to sign Andre Iguodala. Here are the trade details per Utah Jazz website: “The Jazz receive veterans Biedrins, Jefferson and Rush from Golden State in addition to two future unprotected first-round picks (2014 and 2017) and two future second-round picks (2016 and 2017) from the Warriors, a future second-round pick from the Nuggets (2018), and cash considerations. As part of the deal, the Jazz re-signed free agent guard Randy Foye and traded him to Denver, and sent guard Kevin Murphy to Golden State. Golden State also receives guard Andre Iguodala from Denver (via a sign-and-trade agreement) while sending the Nuggets a future second-round pick (2018).” So this was the start of the rebuilding road. During the 2013-14  season, they were the 5th worst team in the NBA. For which in turn, they received the 5th and the 23rd pick from the Golden State Warriors in the 2014 draft.

2014-15 Offseason and regular season

With the 5th pick in the 2014 draft, the Jazz selected Dante Exum, the speedy young Australian. And with the steal of the draft the Jazz selected the sharpshooter Rodney Hood. Many forget how fortunate Utah was when they were able to select Exum and Hood in that draft. At the time, the Jazz desperately needed a point guard and another scoring wing. And they got both in that draft. Draft experts during that 2014 draft had their top four of Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, and Dante Exum. But the Magic selected Aaron Gordon with the fourth pick. After the draft, Utah made some moves. Gordon Hayward was a restricted free agent this offseason and the Jazz organization felt the obligation to bring him back to Utah no matter the cost. Well, the Charlotte Hornets offered Hayward the max offer sheet, Utah matched the offer and got Hayward back on a four year 64 million dollar deal. During the 2014-15 season at the trade deadline, Utah traded the disgruntled Enes Kanter to Oklahoma City Thunder for a 2019 first round draft pick, Kendrick Perkins, Grant Jerrett, and the rights Tibor Pleiss. This made room for Rudy Gobert to start at center and for him to break out, and he sure did. The Jazz, after the trade deadline improved on the defensive end and create the second best defense in the league with the second best record after the All-Star break. They finished the season at 38-44 giving them the 12th pick in the draft.

2015-16 Offseason and regular season

The hopes were high coming into this season, the Jazz made minor moves during this offseason and regular season, expecting Alec Burks to be back healthy and the group to develop. Utah signed Raul Neto and Joe Ingles to the roster. Then, once again, Dennis Lindsey does amazing things and drafts Trey Lyles forward from the University of Kentucky. A versatile player who stands 6’10 and can dribble, pass, shoot and drive. If you have seen any of his late season tape or this summer’s summer league, you know how special and unique he is. During the trade deadline, Utah traded their second round pick for point guard Shelvin Mack. The Jazz struggled with injuries during the season and they ended up one game out of the playoffs having a 40-42 record. Giving them the 12th pick in the draft again.

2016-17 Offseason

Now this is where the fun starts, and where the Jazz begin to finalize the mold of the franchise and team. It started when Utah traded their 12th pick for George Hill from the Indiana Pacers, signed Joe Johnson to a two year 22 million dollar contract, traded Trey Burke to the Washington Wizards for a second round pick, lastly, they traded Olivier Hanlan to the San Antonio Spurs for Boris Diaw and a second round pick. Lots of moves happened, but the Jazz made the moves to push them into the playoffs.

The Utah Jazz has now entered ‘win now” mode. With the additions of savvy veterans like George Hill, Boris Diaw, and Joe Johnson, it not only helps the Jazz for veteran leadership, but they will help more on the court. The roster stands as is: George Hill, Rodney Hood, Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, Dante Exum, Alec Burks, Joe Johnson, Trey Lyles, Boris Diaw, Jeff Withey, Joe Ingles, Tibor Pleiss, Shelvin Mack, and Raul Neto.

The Jazz hasn't made the playoffs in four years, but I think that will change this year. Utah’s team has been constructed beautifully. In particular, the versatility of their team. They have wings who all can guard the 1-4 positions, they have power forwards who can switch and defend the 2-4 positions, and point guards who can guard and play both the point guard and shooting guard positions. Even though the Jazz still are a grit and grind team with Favors and Gobert, they have the ability to mix and intertwine with different lineups is exceptional. Also, are we forgetting how good this defense is going to be? Almost every player on the Jazz lineup with the exceptions of Trey Lyles, Rodney Hood, Alec Burks, and Raul Neto are positive defensive plus-minus. Also, you’re bringing in George Hill and Boris Diaw who both have a positive defense plus-minus rating, while adding a player, Joe Johnson, who has a positive offensive plus-minus rating.

Today's Fastbreak and Bleacher Report’s writer Andy Bailey put together a Wins Over Replacement for each team this free agency, and the Jazz was third on the list gaining six wins.  They added George Hill, Joe Johnson, and Boris Diaw over Trey Burke and Trevor Booker. Not bad if I do say so myself.

“The Jazz don’t have a franchise player or a future star!” I hear this argument a lot, but I have to disagree, Dante Exum is their man. And the franchise is relying on Dante to become a star in this league. This team’s season and future hinges on Dante’s development. Even though it’s been awhile since we’ve seen him play, and the thing we remember was his rookie season. But, I do want to remind you of this youtube video, to see how good he was in last years summer league:

 

Overall, the Jazz has had a long rebuilding mode, but it’s now nearly complete. With all of the trades, signings, and draft picks Utah has built a strong core. Players have tremendous upside like Dante Exum and Rudy Gobert, to the players who have already have made their name in the league like Joe Johnson. The balance of age along with the offensive and defensive versatility will make the Jazz a playoff team this year, and a contending team in the future.

Opening Night Starting Lineup:

George Hill

Rodney Hood

Gordon Hayward

Derrick Favors

Rudy Gobert

Projected record and Conference standing for 2016-17:

50-32, 5th in the Western Conference

All stats and references are from NBA.com and Basketballrefrence.com unless previously noted

My Observation of Josh Adams During Summer League

Josh Adams during Las Vegas Summer League

Credit: Denver Nuggets via Twitter

For many fans around Wyoming, they see Josh Adams as a hero, or one of the greatest players to ever wear a Cowboy uniform. He battled and fought, helped Wyoming win a Mountain West championship and a trip to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The first time since the year 2002. But now Adams’s college career has ended, and after all the accolades that came with it, like Mountain West Player of the Year, and First Team All-Conference, he starts from ground zero.

Adams didn’t get his named called on draft night, but he did get a call from his hometown Denver Nuggets to be signed as a undrafted free agent. Adam’s is now geared for his next task; the Las Vegas NBA Summer League. As we all know, the NBA consists of the best basketball players in the world. And knowing that, it’s very hard to make the NBA, and Adams is realizing it very quickly.

In this article, I will be evaluating Adams during his Summer League debut. What his disadvantages and his weaknesses are. But we’ll find his silver linings and see if we can find what he does well to break through and hang on in the NBA.  And to clarify for any questions, this is the weaknesses he has in the NBA level, not college.

Weaknesses

Being the pick and roll ball handler: Not all of this is his fault, most of it is because he’s too small. Off of the screen, he has trouble seeing over players to pass on the perimeter. Then, when the screener rolls he can’t see over the roller. And if he can see him, the pass to the roller is usually is low and near the ground. This is problematic because it’s easy for opponents to steal the ball or simply stick their foot out causing a kicked ball violation. Lastly, he doesn’t have the height or length to shoot over the bigger defenders when he doesn’t pass which causes a lot of ill-advised shots. I call it the Bryce Cotton effect.

His athleticism is no longer superior to his opponents: During his time in Wyoming, Adams relied on his bounce and speed to score and play. His speed was lightning quick and his bounce was like a pogo stick in Wyoming. But now, there are athletes who are far more athletic than Adams and these players are only in summer league. It’s a hard knock, but it’s true. Adams needs to have his game adapt to not rely on his athleticism. His three point shooting is great, and I also believe he is using it more often. But shooting 22% from the three point line doesn’t help at all.

Gets caught up on ball screens very easily: This is fundamentals. Adams has to do better. When he’s defending the ball handler the opposing teams set screens regularly on him. When he gets screened, he doesn’t fight through them and it seems like Adams get sucked underneath the screen. It hurts his team a lot. It causes players to rotate over to help Adams getting sucked into the screen. If you plant your foot in the middle of the screeners legs and fight through. It’s uncharacteristic of him to be lazy on defense, but on the pick and roll defense, it seems like he is.

Lack of versatility: There has been a big buzz about versatility in the NBA, and the NBA is shifting to players who can play multiple positions and can do numerous things on the court both on the offensive and defensive end. Adams’s has no versatility. He’s only a point guard, and could play off the ball at times. But he can’t defend multiple positions, he can’t switch on bigger players, and can’t play more than one position on the offensive end.

Measurables: Standing at the mere 6’2 with shoes, 6’3 wingspan, and a 7’10 standing reach, It may seem tall for us normal people, but for a basketball player he’s small. If someone is as short as he is, they can stay in the league because of their wingspan. It affects many things on the court. Defense, driving to the basket and getting shots over players. Everything Josh Adams does will be made harder due to his physical limitations.

• In Jeremy Woo’s SI article on May 13th, 2016 he said: “Guys that look tall on TV are … still tall. Nevertheless, there are some first-day takeaways: good measurements and test results (or bad ones for that matter) will affirm certain things for scouts, giving everyone numbers to agree on—at least until teams have players in to acquire some of the same data for themselves.” Scouts and teams take the measurables very, very seriously.
• Measurables are so valuable to scouts and General Managers due to the tons of options the Scouts and GM’s are able to have with the players. Players who have height and length have more potential because you can't change what you have. For instance, Josh Adams who lacks in those areas can't get taller or longer, but he can get faster, build muscle mass, and can improve his vertical. It’s observable in NBA history for more physically gifted players to last longer and have a longer career in the NBA versus the less physically gifted players in terms of height and length have a shorter career.

Strengths

Creating separation: Adams has always been able to create separation. And you can see it here with this vine:

As you can see, the shot clock was running out and Adams hit a phenomenal step back jumper that created his separation from his opponent. It was a very good isolation play.

This was niiiiice 😎#NBASummer #Nuggets pic.twitter.com/mPSI0v0mrL

— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) July 15, 2016

Driving to the basket: Adams is a great slasher and is phenomenal at adjusting his body while he goes to the rim. His finishing is great as well and has the special touch at the rim. He reminds me of Alec Burks because it seems like he finishes around the rim, but the stats don’t back it up. It’s all about the observations here.

Passion and drive: This is where Josh Adams is the best. He wears his heart on his sleeve and plays hard every play. His drive is bar none, he’ll work as hard as he can to make it in the NBA. NBA teams will notice it, and hopefully, it can help him breakthrough.

Josh Adams has a high mountain to climb, probably higher than the evaluation in Laramie, Wyoming. He is relentless in his pursuit of his NBA dream, but sometimes, the odds are stacked against you. It’s been like that for his whole life, when he was at Chaparral High School, when he was at the University of Wyoming, and now in the NBA. Time will only tell for Josh Adams and his NBA dream.